Gulf of Aden: a Den for al Qaeda?

Piracy might currently be the most pronounced problem in and around the Gulf of Aden, but it is by far not the only strategic threat in the region. In fact, it may just be a harbinger for greater concerns which may develop down the road, ones which might have more profound ramifications for the region and America's security.  And while the media spotlight has been on one failed state, Somalia, Yemen might be just as important factor for the lawlessness on the high seas:

Yemen is the source of a significant number of weapons in circulation in Somalia, according to the United Nations' monitoring group on the 1992 arms embargo to Somalia. While million-dollar piracy ransoms are raising cash for arms, private interests in Yemen have no interest in ending piracy or bringing a halt to the war in Somalia.

The looming scenario, having a failed state and a state potentially bound for failure, buttressing a major maritime trade corridor that sees 11% of the world's petroleum (not to mention other essential goods) pass through it is daunting enough. But in terms of counterterrorism concerns in the region, we could see a situation developing where we have an ungoverned conveyor belt for people and goods between Somalia and Yemen, a de facto maritime version of the Afghanistan/Pakistan frontier. The Gulf could become an even more lawless conduit for disaffected individuals ripe for Jihadi recruitment. This, along with the increased flow of weaponry and extremists to the Horn of Africa, the Sahel as well as southern peninsula could make Somalia, Yemen, and Aden an even more important flashpoint in the region.  And while the media is ignoring it, intelligence officials as recently as last week are increasingly worried about Yemen's growth as an al Qaeda stronghold:

CIA Director Michael Hayden on Thursday called Yemen, bin Laden's ancestral home, an attractive location for al Qaeda recruitment and training and a source of worrisome threats to neighboring Saudi Arabia.

"Yemen is another country of concern, a place where Al Qaeda is strengthening. We've seen an unprecedented number of attacks this year," Hayden said in a Washington speech to the Atlantic Council of the United States. "Plots are increasing not only in number, but in sophistication, and the range of targets is broadening," he said.

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